Project purpose
The purpose of the project is to examine:
- how the existing aged budget could service more people, more quickly
- whether current policy settings:
- perversely inhibit the number of people who can access services
- undermine the government’s promise to keep people ageing in place.
We are working with Professor David Cullen to undertake the economic analysis and modelling. David was the inaugural Chief Economist of the National Disability Insurance Agency, prior to which he was the first Chief Economist at the Australian Government Department of Health.
Goals
The project aims to:
- test whether investing in preventive aged care services reduces demand and costs downstream
- assess if adequate investment in low-cost preventive supports can generate system-level efficiencies and improve outcomes for older Australians
- examine whether current funding and policy settings are enabling people to live independently at home for longer, or if they are contributing to earlier entry into residential care; and
- develop a robust, scalable methodology for evaluating the impact of preventive services across the aged care system.
The project will use theoretical economic modelling to help inform future policy and funding considerations within the aged care context.
Ultimately, we aim to identify opportunities to improve both equity and efficiency in aged care service delivery.
Scope
Our 2025-26 Annual Work Plan set out our original intention to explore, at a broad level, the costs and benefits of investing in preventive care at a whole-of health system level.
We have since refined the scope to focus on the existing aged care budget.
Initially, the project will focus on two key preventive supports currently funded under the Commonwealth Home Support Program (CHSP) and Support at Home:
- home modifications
- in‑home personal care (showering support).
We selected these supports because older people, providers and advocates consistently identify them as being among the most needed, and the most useful in preventing escalation.
We recognise there are other important preventive supports, such as social engagement, carer respite, reablement, allied health, and nutrition, which we may consider in the future.
Timeframe
We anticipate the project will be completed before the end of the 2026 calendar year.